Over the last six months, the Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) has fallen 11.16%, erasing a significant portion of investor gains and highlighting a growing sense of caution in the Saudi market.
The main driver behind this decline is not simply global macro trends but rather a loss of confidence in Saudi Arabia’s ability to deliver on its ambitious development agenda.
Vision 2030 projects have been announced at an unprecedented scale, but the speed at which they are being pushed forward has raised doubts about execution and financing.
Despite these pressures, the outlook is not entirely negative.
Major projects could still be sold to foreign investors if financing tightens, and oil prices are widely expected to rise.
Given that Saudi Arabia’s breakeven oil price for covering development spending is estimated near $94 per barrel, any upward move in crude could quickly reduce deficits and restore confidence in the market.
This is not the Usual Format as these are Unusual Times.
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